In its 22nd annual Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell is forecasting up to 9,250 new business jet deliveries worth over $250 billion from 2013 to 2022.
The 2013 Honeywell outlook reflects an approximate 3% to 4% increase in projected delivery value over the 2012 forecast. Despite slightly lower unit deliveries, the expected value comes from pricing increases and a continued change in expected business jet delivery mix, which reflects the ongoing trend toward larger business jet models.
Honeywell forecasts 2013 deliveries of approximately 600 to 625 new business jets, a single-digit decrease over levels reported last year. The reduced deliveries expected in 2013 are largely due to new program delays rather than deterioration in demand.
"2014 industry deliveries are anticipated to be up modestly, reflecting recovery in supply- side constraints and some gains linked to the projected pace of global economic recovery," says Rob Wilson, president, Honeywell Business and General Aviation.
In its latest survey, Honeywell found that the operators interviewed plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 28% of their fleets over the next 5 years either as a replacement or in addition to the their current fleet. Of those new business jet purchase plans, 19% are intended to occur by 2014, with larger shares of more than 22% each year scheduled for 2015 and 2016 purchases. This is slightly improved from last year's results and leads to a modest gain in projected demand in the near term.
The large cabin group (supermidsize through the ultralong range and business liner) is expected to account for more than 80% of all expenditures on new business jets in the near term. Volume growth between now and 2023 will be led by this class of aircraft, reflecting nearly 60% of additional units, and nearly 85% of additional retail value.
The overall level of forecast aircraft demand coming from inside North America has increased for the first time in recent history. This year, roughly 61% of projected demand comes from North American operators, up eight points from the 2012 survey.
North America represents more than half of projected global demand for the next 5 years based on the region's historically dominant installed business jet base, affirming the region's indisputable importance to the industry's future.
The complete Honeywell Aviation Outlook, including forecasts for business aircraft demand worldwide – plus survey results for flight activity, operator concerns, and the pre-owned jet market – is available on request, via email.
Source: Honeywell