The management at Bombardier Aerospace has released its annual business and commercial aircraft market forecast numbers. The forecasts includes a total of 24,000 business jet deliveries from 2013 to 2032 in the segments in which Bombardier competes - light, medium and large categories, excluding very light jets and large corporate airliners - which represents approximately US$650 billion in industry revenues. Specifically, Bombardier’s Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth US$269 billion, during the 2013 to 2022 period, and 14,200 aircraft, worth US$381 billion, from 2023 to 2032.
While business jet orders and deliveries for 2013 are expected to be comparable to those of 2012, the forecast is that they will begin to improve in 2014, and that the industry will surpass its prior delivery peak year of 2008 by as early as 2016. It is also anticipated that with demand for business jets shifting towards emerging markets, the fleet of large and medium category aircraft will grow, with the large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.
North American customers will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2013 and 2032, followed by Europe which, despite its continued economic challenges, remains the second largest market. China is forecast to become the third largest region in terms of deliveries over the next 20 years with 1,000 deliveries from 2013 to 2022, and 1,420 deliveries from 2023 to 2032. Officials at Bombardier, headquartered in Montréal, Canada, also expect key growth markets including Brazil, India, Russia/the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Mexico, and Turkey to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.
The company’s 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft market predicts 12,800 deliveries from 2013 to 2032, generating over US$646 billion in sales revenues. While the overall worldwide demand remains the same as the previous year, the regional distribution has been re-aligned with an expectation for below-average GDP growth in the mature markets of North America and Europe, and for more robust growth in emerging markets.
Bombardier’s forecasted industry deliveries by segment are:
- 20 to 59 seats: 250 aircraft deliveries
- 60 to 99 seats: 5,650 aircraft deliveries
- 100 to 149 seats: 6,900 aircraft deliveries
In the 60- to 99-seat aircraft market, the regional jet segment is expected to deliver 2,950 units – representing 52% of the 60- to 99-seat segment total – valued at US$105 billion, and the turboprop segment to deliver 2,700 units over the 20-year forecast period. In the 100- to 149-seat segment, demand will be driven by the availability of more fuel-efficient and technologically advanced aircraft types. Deliveries from 2013 to 2032 within this segment are forecasted to reach 6,900 aircraft, worth more than US$460 billion.
While demand for new aircraft orders will continue to come from established and developed markets, the growth potential in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Latin America is predicted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. With fuel prices and environmental concerns continuing to rise, operators across both industries continue to focus on fleet optimization and aircraft efficiency.
Strong projected traffic demand, an expanding middle class population in growth markets, and the continued relaxation of scope clauses during the forecast period, are the key driving forces behind Bombardier’s 20-year commercial aircraft market forecast numbers. While demand from international markets such as India, China, Africa and Latin America is expected to increase significantly, North America is expected to remain the world’s largest market in aircraft deliveries, taking an expected 3,710 new aircraft, followed by China and Europe with 2,330 and 1,700 aircraft, respectively.
Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast predicts technical obsolescence and rising oil prices will be the most critical factors influencing airline fleet decisions over the next 20 years and, with the increasing demand for more cost effective and fuel efficient aircraft, 60% of the current commercial fleet will be retired by 2032 with most of the retirements occurring in the smaller 20- to 59-seat segment. However, with increased worldwide interest in new generation technologies which allow for larger and more economical 60- to 149-seat aircraft solutions, and steady economic growth in developing markets, new aircraft demand is anticipated to remain strong.