Crew May be Forced to Abandon ISS

NASA International Space Station Program Manager Mike Suffred says evacuation is a distinct possibility in mid-November if Russian Soyuz rockets are not flying, writes Florida Today's Todd Halvorson.

Past NASA risk assessment shows a one in 10 chance of losing the station within six months if there is no crew aboard to handle critical system failures. That soars to a 50% proability if it remains crewless for a year, the newspaper says.

The International Space Station has been continuously staffed since the first expedition crew opened the outpost in November 2000.

In a worst-case scenario, station systems could fail, making it impossible for engineers on the ground to maintain remote control of the 1 million-pound outpost.

In that case, the station eventually would make an uncontrolled re-entry, potentially showering flaming wreckage on populated areas, says Florida Today, USA TODAY's sister publication.

The issue is acute as Russian experts try to figure out why a Soyuz rocket failed last week, sending an unmanned Progress supply ship crashing into Siberia.

Russia's Soyuz rocket is the only means of ferrying supplies and crew to the station now that the U.S. space shuttle missions have ended.

Plans to send a fresh crew to the station Sept. 21 have been postponed indefinitely, and the return of three crewmembers Sept. 8 has been delayed for at least week.

Complicating the problem is the imminent "expiration date" for the two Soyuz spacecraft docked with the station. They are not certified to stay longer than 200 days in space.

By juggling schedules, a crew could remain onboard until late December, although that would mean a landing during brutally cold weather in Kazakhstan around Christmas.