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China’s challenger to Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS expects to announce the first order for its single- aisle passenger plane next week, breaking into a market that may be worth $1.68 trillion over 20 years.

Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China plans to announce the C919 deal at Airshow China, held in the southern city of Zhuhai, Yuan Wenfeng, deputy general manager at its program management department, said by phone last week. He declined to say how large the order will be or who the customer is.

The C919 increases competition for Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320 in the narrowbody segment that will be the largest part of the global plane market through 2029, according to Boeing. The Zhuhai exhibition, which starts Nov. 16, will also feature debuts for a dozen locally developed planes and the first show flight for Comac’s ARJ21 regional jet, as China showcases efforts to develop its aerospace industry.

“This is a big breakthrough for China, which will eventually become a player in the global aircraft market,” said Bai Bingyang, an analyst at Capital Securities Corp in Shanghai. “Boeing and Airbus’s duopoly will be under threat.”

Government-controlled Comac may sell more than 2,000 C919s worldwide over 20 years, Yuan said in February. The company aims to announce orders for 100 this year, he said then. Air China Ltd., China Southern Airlines Co. and China Eastern Airlines Corp., the nation’s big three state-controlled carriers, have all said they will support local planemakers.

“The C919 is a project that China is determined to make a mark with,” said Armand Cao, a Shanghai-based analyst at Frost & Sullivan China. The first orders will likely come from domestic carriers, he said.

Narrowbody Competition
The 168-seater C919 is due to enter service in 2014. The ARJ21, which is running at least a year behind schedule, can carry about 70 passengers. Comac signed an order for as many as 25 ARJ21s with GE’s plane-leasing arm at the 2008 Zhuhai show, its first overseas deal.

State-controlled Comac will have a 1,500 square-meter stand at this year’s Zhuhai show, which runs from Nov. 16 to Nov. 21. The event will feature about 600 exhibitors, including Boeing, Airbus, Rolls-Royce Group Plc and Honeywell International Inc., according to the organizers. China’s J-10 fighter jet, Bombardier Inc. business jets and Airbus’s A380 will be among the roughly 70 planes on display.

“We’re expecting strong interest and a large turnout,” Yuan said. “China’s aviation industry has been growing very rapidly and this momentum will continue.”

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