2026 Forecast: Aerospace manufacturers industry outlook

Commercial aircraft demand remains strong, production rates increase – but supply chain headwinds persist for aerospace manufacturers.

Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in the January/February 2026 print edition of Aerospace Manufacturing and Design under the headline “2026 Forecast.”

CREDIT: ADOBE STOCK | © mschauer

Global demand for air travel remains strong. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the world’s airline trade association, projects global passenger traffic will reach a record 5.2 billion passengers in 2026, growing around 4.4% to 4.9% from 2025.

Airlines continue to order jetliners. By the end of 2025, Boeing collected 1,167 gross orders, led by 591 orders for 737s and a rebound in demand for the widebody 787 with 381 orders. This past year for the first time since 2018 Boeing surpassed Airbus, which had 1,000 gross orders, with A320neo family single-aisle jets accounting for 656 orders, followed by 193 twin-aisle A350 orders.

Forecast Int’l calculates Airbus and Boeing had a combined backlog of 15,461 commercial aircraft. At current build rates, the backlog would take each original equipment manufacturer (OEM) more than 11 years to deliver.

The continuing aircraft production backlogs are causing airlines to fly existing fleets longer and invest more in reliability, availability, and maintainability, according to Deloitte’s 2026 Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook. That translates to continued strong maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) demand.

Global aviation marketplace locatory.com estimates the global engine MRO market in North America is valued at $137 billion from 2025 to 2034.

CFM Int’l deliveries of LEAP engines for 737s and A320s through the first nine months of 2025 were up 21% compared with 2024. LEAP engines account for nearly three-fourths of narrowbody engines. Pratt & Whitney supplied enough engines to meet its share of aircraft OEMs’ 2025 production and was delivering engines for 2026 production ahead of schedule. Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbofan backlog exceeded 12,000 engines by mid-2025.

Commercial aircraft manufacturers are beginning to resolve supply chain constraints that have thwarted efforts to increase production rates. Notable in 2025, Boeing and Airbus each absorbed the aerostructures production that had been provided to both by Spirit AeroSystems. Significantly, Boeing’s 737 fuselage assembly is brought back in-house, along with major structures for the 767, 777, and 787 Dreamliner. Similarly, components for Airbus A220 and A320 narrowbody and A350 widebody jets are made at sites now part of the global Airbus enterprise.

Quality issues popped up in the form of a software recall for 6,000 Airbus A320 family jets due to solar flare vulnerability. Metal panels near the cockpit were the wrong thickness on some A320s due to what the plane maker characterized as a “supplier quality issue” requiring hundreds of inspections and a reduction in delivery goals. And contaminated powdered metal in high-pressure turbine and compressor disks was causing microscopic cracks and potential failures on about 3,000 Pratt & Whitney engines manufactured between 2015 and 2021 powering Airbus A320neo and some A220 aircraft.

Production rates climbed modestly in 2025, with Deloitte’s 2026 aerospace and defense (A&D) outlook stating, “the commercial aerospace sector appears poised to continue growth, aided by rising fleet utilization, continued fleet growth, and steady gains in both passenger and cargo demand.” The report cites five trends likely to shape the industry this year: Artificial intelligence (AI) and agentic AI; reshaping of the MRO aftermarket; building supply chain resiliency and efficiency amid volatility; unlocking competitive advantage in contracting and procurement; AI driving workforce transformation by shifting from big data to multidisciplinary skill sets. https://www.deloitte.com; https://www.forecastinternational.com; https://www.iata.org

 

First flight of the second A321XLR test aircraft. CREDIT: AIRBUS SAS

AIRBUS delivered 793 commercial aircraft to 91 customers globally in 2025 and registered 1,000 new gross orders in the commercial aircraft business. The backlog at the end of December 2025 increased to a new year-end record of 8,754 aircraft, up from 2024’s year-end backlog of 8,658 aircraft. Widebody backlog reached a year-end record of 1,124 aircraft.

Despite what a company’s year-end summary called “a continued complex and dynamic operating environment,” deliveries in 2025 continued an upward trajectory.

In the first two days of the 2025 Paris Airshow, Airbus obtained or finalized agreements for 180 widebody and narrowbody commercial jetliners. If further options are exercised, the total could reach 288.

Airbus’ U.S. manufacturing facility in Mobile, Alabama inaugurated its second A320 final assembly line in October, with the facility tripling in size since Airbus started manufacturing commercial aircraft in the U.S. in 2015. https://www.airbus.com

Airbus commercial aircraft deliveries 2025 vs. 2024

Program20252024
A220 family9375
A320 family607602
A330 family3632
A350 family5757
Total793766
Qatar Airways placed a record setting order for Boeing widebodies last May. PHOTO CREDIT: BOEING

BOEING’s backlog totaled 6,713 aircraft at the end of 2025. The company jointly agreed with the FAA in October to increase 737 build rates from 38 to 42 per month. Long-term, the goal is 52 narrowbodies per month. For 787s, production was seven per month in November with a goal of 10 per month in 2026.

Qatar Airways’ agreement to purchase 130 787 Dreamliners and 30 777X airplanes set a record as Boeing’s largest widebody order. An additional 50 787 and 777X airplanes are an option.

In 2025, Boeing Defense, Space & Security Programs delivered 131 new-build production units, including remanufactures and modifications of helicopters, fighters, tankers, patrol, trainers, and satellites – up from 112 in 2024. https://www.boeing.com

Boeing commercial aircraft deliveries 2025 vs. 2024

Program20252024
737447265
7673018
7773514
7878851
Total600348

 

Embraer’s Phenom 300E, light-jet market leader. PHOTO: EMBRAER

EMBRAER delivered a total of 244 aircraft across Commercial Aviation, Executive Aviation, and Defense & Security divisions in 2025, surpassing the 206 units delivered in 2024. Commercial Aviation delivered 78 jets (34 E175, 6 E190-E2, and 38 E195-E2), in-line with its 77-to-85 aircraft guidance for the year. Executive Aviation delivered 155 jets in 2025, at the high end of its 145-to-155 guidance for the year. Phenom light jets numbered 86, mid-size Praetor jets, 69. The Phenom 300, the light jet market leader for 13 consecutive years, accounted for 72 deliveries. Defense & Security delivered three C-390 Millennium military transport planes in 2025, the same as the year before. It delivered eight A-29 Super Tucano tactical aircraft.

As of the end of Q3 2025, Embraer’s order backlog reached $31.3 billion, an all-time high for the company. https://embraer.com

 

Lockheed Martin celebrated the roll-out of the first F-35A for the Finnish Air Force in December. PHOTO CREDIT: LOCKHEED MARTIN

LOCKHEED MARTIN delivered 191 F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter aircraft in 2025, surpassing the previous delivery record of 142 stealth jets. The program also reached one million flight hours earlier in the year and the program team completed delivery of the TR-3 advanced software update.

In September, the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) and Lockheed Martin reached final agreement of Lots 18-19 for the production and delivery of up to 296 F-35s for $24 billion, finalizing the largest production contracts in program history. The JPO and Lockheed Martin also agreed to an Air Vehicle Sustainment Contract award supporting annualized sustainment activities across the F-35 enterprise for 2025 and beyond.

Internationally, Italy added 25 F-35s and Denmark 16 F-35s to their fleets, Finland celebrated the rollout of its first F-35, Belgium welcomed its first in-country aircraft, and Norway completed deliveries to its F-35 fleet – becoming the first F-35 partner nation to receive all aircraft (52) in its program of record. Twelve nations now operate the F-35, with almost 1,300 aircraft in service. https://www.f35.com; https://www.lockheedmartin.com

THE GLOBAL SPACE ECONOMY for 2024/2025 was worth $613 billion, up more than 7.5% from $570 billion the previous year, the Space Foundation reports. Around 78% of the value was driven by commercial activities, with government budgets contributing the remaining 22%. The U.S. government invested $77 billion in national security and civil space programs during the period. The upward trend is expected to continue, with the space market estimated to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. https://www.spacefoundation.org

January/February 2026
Explore the January/February 2026 Issue

Check out more from this issue and find your next story to read.